UAE rides out downturn and Arab Spring turmoil
From Analysis Oct 18 2011 BY: Sarah Lord
, Financial Planning Director
, Killik & Co (Middle East & Asia)
Sarah Lord, wealth planning director at Killik & Co, says reports of the demise of Dubai and the UAE have been greatly exaggerated –at least for now.
With Ramadan finished and life getting back to normal in the United Arab Emirates, I have sensed a noticeable change in sen¬timent here. While much of the world has being going through unrest or economic turmoil, a few places have actually ben¬efited – and one of these, surprising as it may seem to its critics, is the UAE.
What is more, while GDP forecasts for many major economies are look¬ing dubious, and there is continued speculation that some may be heading back into recession, Dubai, this time, does not appear to be joining them.
Its tourism and retail sectors are doing well, and there are also signs that Dubai’s beleaguered real estate industry has reached bottom and begun to recover. The IMF predicts that Dubai’s real GDP will rise by 3.3% in 2011, and further in 2012.
But if Europe, Japan and the US do not start to take much-needed action in relation to their econo-mies, there is the poten¬tial that they will have an even greater negative impact than they have done already. If this hap¬pens, the current upbeat mood in the UAE could end up as little more than a false dawn.
Personally I remain on the side of the cautiously optimistic, who believe the UAE has worked out the worst of its debt problems and that it is better placed than many other jurisdic¬tions, particularly in the Middle East, to get through the next few years.
However, I am equally convinced that many cli¬ents in the region are less certain of this than I am. They will be looking to advisers, like all of us – as people always tend to do during times of uncertainty – for guidance.