Financial services professionals worldwide are more optimistic in their bonus expectations in January 2025 compared to 2024, according to the new global study from financial services careers platform eFinancialCareers.
Bonuses across the industry are predicted to increase by 50% year-on-year on average. The largest expected bonus increases are for professionals working in private credit (91%), followed by private equity (68%) and hedge funds (65%).
In contrast, traditional asset managers anticipate the smallest year-on-year bonus increase at 27%.
The findings are based on eFinancialCareers’ ‘Bonus and Job Market Expectations Report’, which provides insights on bonus expectations and job security using both quantitative and qualitative methods. In total, 1,700 respondents were surveyed spread across continents, with the organisations represented spanning banks, hedge funds, asset managers, public equity firms, and professional services firms, among others.
However, more than 2 in 5 (42%) are concerned about maintaining their role going into 2025, rising from a third who felt the same last year (33%).
Bonuses were much more conservative in the bonus round of January 2024, increasing by 2.9% in the UK, 5.8% in North America and 0.9% in Europe, signalling that higher compensation doesn’t directly equate to a greater sense of job security.
Table 1: Expected changes in YoY bonuses
Source: eFinancialCareers, 2024 Bonus and Job Market Expectations Report
UK bonus cap relaxation takes effect in employee predictions
With the announcement of a relaxation in UK bonus caps, professionals in the UK & Ireland are expecting a higher increase in bonuses (43%) in comparison to their North American and European counterparts who are anticipating increases of 38% and 40% respectively.
The most optimistic cohort are those working in the Gulf region, with financial service professionals located there expecting an increase of 78% compared to 2024.
However, while professionals working in the Gulf region might be optimistic about their bonuses, the same cannot be said about job security. Half of respondents in this market report feeling insecure about their jobs as we head into 2025, reinforcing that there isn’t a positive correlation between rising compensation and feeling more secure in a role.
Table 2: Bonus expectations by region
Source: eFinancialCareers, 2024 Bonus and Job Market Expectations Report
Men remain more optimistic on bonuses than women
Men are more optimistic about their bonuses than women and the same was true last year. However, encouragingly the gap has narrowed, with an 8% difference predicted for 2025. In 2024, the difference was 11%, with male professionals expecting bonuses to go up by 7% and women expecting them to go down by 4%.
Table 3: Bonus predictions by gender
Source: eFinancialCareers, 2024 Bonus and Job Market Expectations Report
Peter Healey, CEO of eFinancialCareers, said: “The level of optimism is fairly surprising given the uncertain environment across the globe. Q3 earnings showed bumper growth across most major players and so this will be influencing how bullish individuals feel which is reflected in these predictions. That optimism seems to be shared across most major sectors, locations and demographics.
“Throughout 2024, investment banking revenues have recovered and our findings demonstrate that there is hope that this is the start of a recovery that will continue into 2025.”
