There is of course another way to read it, however. With the Fed more concerned with keeping the bull market inflated than things like inflation, there remains a risk that it is and has been for some time, behind the curve.
This is the view of Jonathan Gumpel, manager of the FSL Brooks Macdonald Defensive Capital fund who said during the panel discussion at PA Summer Congress that followed the poll that depending on what statistics and measures you use, you can come up with very different answers as to the path from here.
“Yellen and the Fed seem determined to be behind the curve. They have talked a lot about being ahead of the curve, but in practice they have proved pretty active in trying to sit behind it. And, I think the real problem is not whether or not the US economy is growing, growing slowly or even pausing, the real issue is whether or not you get a pick-up in inflation,” he said, “and a sudden sharp risk off move as a result of a sharply increased increase in expectations of interest rates.”
Should this happen, then a broad range of insurance policies could well be in order.
