The Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, which enjoy special arrangements for access to the EU, would face similar uncertainties, the Cabinet Office paper stated.
It also claims the status and entitlements of the approximately two million UK citizens living, working and travelling in the other 27 member states of the EU could be put in jeopardy, including access to pensions and healthcare.
These expats all currently enjoy a range of specific rights to live, to work and access to pensions, healthcare and public services that are only guaranteed because of EU law.
Long road
“A vote to leave the EU would be the start, not the end, of a process. It could lead to up to a decade or more of uncertainty,” the report, entitled ‘The Process for Withdrawing from the European Union’ and written by civil servants, stated.
The document was released in order to set out the process that would follow a vote to leave the European Union, and the prospects for negotiations.
The rules for Britain to exit the EU are set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. However, the Cabinet Office paper states that the process is unprecedented. “No country has ever used Article 50 – it is untested,” the report said.
“There is a great deal of uncertainty about how it would work. It would be a complex negotiation requiring the involvement of all 27 remaining EU Member States and the European Commission.”
Border issue
On Gibraltar, the report said that currently Gibraltarians have the right to move freely to Spain, and the right to establish a business and provide services there. But, before Spain joined the EU in 1986, the border was closed from 1969–85.
“If the UK left the EU, there would be no certainty that the border would remain open.” the official analysis by the government officials stated.
The chief minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo, has already said that a vote by Britain to leave the EU would pose “an existential threat in economic terms” to the territory.
Picardo, who is leader of the Gibraltar Socialist Labour party, has said if Britain were to vote for a “Brexit” he would look for a new relationship with the EU.
“[If] one part of the UK decides that it wants out of the European Union, then the negotiations should involve each of the separate parts being able to remain with a different degree of membership,” he told the Financial Times last year.
The government of Gibraltar last week put in place the legislative framework for holding the UK’s referendum on whether it stays or leaves the European Union.
