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global wealth to rise nearly 40 by 2018

10 Oct 13

The past 13 years may be best remembered by many for their negative real returns on equities, a global financial crisis, and the collapse of various regional and national housing bubbles. But the latest report by Credit Suisse's Research Institute finds that global wealth has in fact more than doubled since 2000, reaching a new all-time high of $241trn, helped by "strong economic growth and rising population levels in emerging nations".

The past 13 years may be best remembered by many for their negative real returns on equities, a global financial crisis, and the collapse of various regional and national housing bubbles. But the latest report by Credit Suisse's Research Institute finds that global wealth has in fact more than doubled since 2000, reaching a new all-time high of $241trn, helped by "strong economic growth and rising population levels in emerging nations".

The US also helped to drive the growth, accounting for 72% of the 4.9% growth in global wealth in the past year.

Average wealth per adult has also hit a new peak of $51,600, although importantly, "inequality remains high", according to Credit Suisse, which unveiled its 64-page 2013 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report and a more detailed, accompanying volume, the Global Wealth Databook, yesterday.

Global individual wealth is expected to rise "by nearly 40% over the next five years, reaching $334trn by 2018", the Credit Suisse report says, adding that the world’s emerging markets are spected to account for 29% of that growth. "China will account for nearly 50% of the increase in emerging economies’ wealth", and most of the growth will occur in the middle-income sector, although "the number of millionaires will also rise markedly over the next five years".

The two Credit Suisse wealth reports are described by their authors as being different from other similar studies in that they measure and analyse trends in wealth "across nations, from the very bottom of the ‘wealth pyramid’ to ultra-high net worth individuals".

Trends five years on

In the five years since the global financial crisis erupted across the globe, a number of "interesting" trends in wealth accumulation have emerged, the Credit Suisse researchers note, including a slowing in emerging country wealth growth, and the emergence in this realm of "some notable winners (Mexico), and decliners (Brazil and Russia, both hurt by weaker currencies)".

"We also find that the distribution of wealth in China is very different, and apparently more balanced than that of India, and reflects China’s role as the vanguard of the emerging consumer," the researchers add, in the introduction to their report.

"In the ‘old world’ we so far fail to see a positive wealth effect in Japan, while there has been a resurgence in Eurozone wealth, with our new estimates challenging the findings of the recent European Central Bank survey, as we find that the ECB understates the household wealth per adult in most Eurozone countries, with the notable exceptions of Cyprus and Malta."

The US may have seen one of its largest cities – Detroit – file for bankruptcy in July, but the country itself continues to be home to the greatest number of millionaires, or 13.2 million, as well as the highest number of ultra-high net worth individuals (those worth $50m or more). Credit Suisse found it has around 45,650 of them, or around 45% of the global total.

‘Wealth mobility’

The 2013 edition of the Credit Suissse Global Wealth Report focuses in particular on what its authors call "wealth mobility", or the ease with which individuals’ fortunes rise and fall. This mobility, they note, appears "surprisingly high in the short run", with fewer than  two-thirds of the 2000–01 Forbes billionaires still appearing on that list in 2005, "and barely half by the end of the decade".

"Across generations, the latest evidence points to more persistence, although continued high wealth growth in countries like China will ensure that many individuals rise rapidly in the wealth pyramid," the report’s authors note.

To read and download the 2013 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report,  click here.  To read and download the 155-page, 2013 Global Wealth Databook, click here.

 

 

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