A Reuters poll of more than 500 economists revealed a negative forecast for global growth in 2019, for the first time.
Of the 44 economies included in the poll, growth in 18 of them is expected to slow or cease entirely, while 23 are predicted to remain unchanged.
The respondents related the downgrade to the US-China trade war and the tightening of financial conditions.
Global growth for 2018 remains at the 3.8% prediction made in July this year, but the general consensus for 2019 was for growth of 3.6%, which is 0.1% lower than the International Monetary Fund’s projection.
Large deficits
Emerging markets have seen an abrupt stop of capital flows over the past few months creating large external deficits.
Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC, told Singapore newspaper The Straits Times that “a simple dynamic is playing out in the global economy right now: the US is booming, while most of the rest of the world slows or even stagnates”.
“The stresses caused by this divergence are playing out uncomfortably in many emerging markets.”
