The first is that it is a tragedy that can only end poorly for the people of Greece. Sweeping aside the bad puns and market rhetoric, the fact that the ‘Nos’ took Sunday’s referendum so convincingly is as clear an indication as the queues outside the ATMs that things are very, very bad.
So bad that 62% of the Greek people, were willing to jump into the unknown just to escape it. Indeed, as Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist for Europe, J.P. Morgan Asset Management pointed out: “On average, 59 Greek businesses have gone bust every day since the start of 2015. That number will have soared with the closure of the banks, and the timing could not be worse for Greece’s main industry—tourism.”
The second thing is that although market moves were muted on Monday, volatility will continue to rise – primarily because (and this is the third certainty) no one really knows what happens next.
As Hawksmoor’s head of research, Jim Wood-Smith put it: “No-one has a Scooby what yesterday’s vote means, what is going to happen next or what comes after that.”
However, while Wood-Smith is rather sanguine about this lack of knowledge, saying it adds up only to uncertainty, not crisis, for markets, there are others that are a lot more worried.
