Five Autumn Budget predictions
By Tom Carnegie, 20 Nov 17
With chancellor Philip Hammond poised to release the government’s Autumn Budget on Wednesday, International Adviser has spoken to experts from Old Mutual Wealth, RSM, Mazars, Irwin Mitchell Private Wealth and Aegon to get their budget predictions.
A cloud of uncertainty
David Baker, partner and chief investment officer at Mazars Financial Planning, says Brexit negotiations and uncertainties related to leaving the EU will cast a long shadow over the chancellor’s budget.
He said without a clear idea of what the economy will look like over the next 12 months, it will be difficult for the chancellor to make any significant new fiscal policy changes.
“The chancellor will also be keen to give an impression of stability, and to avoid any embarrassing u-turns in his second budget. As a result, it looks likely that radical reforms will be off the agenda,” Baker said.
Pension rules
“A budget without alteration to pension rules is an uncommon event these days, but we do not anticipate any changes of significance,” Baker said.
“Whilst there may be a desire from the Treasury to limit the tax relief to higher rate tax payers, this is a sensitive area and given the precarious position of the government we would be very surprised to see anything other than tinkering on pension limits,” he said.
Paradise Papers and inequality
Baker predicts tax avoidance is likely to receive a mention, particularly in light of the Paradise Papers.
“Whether or not we will see new measures to curb avoidance or simply a ‘renewed commitment’ together with a progress report on HMRC successes remains to be seen.”
He also expects to see some new action around inter-generational inequality. However he does not expect any “bold moves”.
Tags: Aegon | Budget | Irwin Mitchell | Mazars | Old Mutual
