Five Autumn Budget predictions
By Tom Carnegie, 20 Nov 17
With chancellor Philip Hammond poised to release the government’s Autumn Budget on Wednesday, International Adviser has spoken to experts from Old Mutual Wealth, RSM, Mazars, Irwin Mitchell Private Wealth and Aegon to get their budget predictions.
A chancellor under pressure
Over the years, chancellors of the exchequer have got into the habit of giving their budgets straplines.
In reference to the impending one, George Bull from RSM said the strapline should be “budget of a chancellor under pressure”.
At a crossroads
Bull said even without Brexit, the UK tax system is as a crossroads.
“With the tax base shrinking, the question as to who should pay how much tax on what is more important than ever before,” Bull said.
“Then there’s the question of which social goods we wish to pay for through the tax system, and whether some current tax reliefs should be reined in because the cost to the Exchequer is not matched by the broader benefits they provide.
“Of course, the role of the tax system in the housing market, tackling social inequality and inter-generational issues,” he said.
Tight for time
Bull said the chancellor is short of both time and room to manoeuvre, meaning the budget will likely be lacking in any major reforms.
“To do justice to this requires a major public debate followed by the framing of proposals for consultation and then a considerable expenditure of parliamentary time in enacting new law,” Bull said.
“With Brexit dominating the parliamentary programme, time is one thing the chancellor does not have,” he said.
A sense of control
With a need to restore voter confidence and impart a sense of control and order to the government, Bull predicts the chancellor could include the following in his budget.
- An overall increase in taxes
- Restrictions on cherished tax reliefs
- New anti-avoidance measures following the ‘Paradise Papers’
- First steps to reform VAT
- An indication of the direction of travel for future workplace tax and national insurance contributions changes following the Taylor review
- More resources for HM Revenue & Customs to tackle tax evasion.
RSM spoke to International Adviser last week where they gave an in depth analysis of their budget predictions.
Tags: Aegon | Budget | Irwin Mitchell | Mazars | Old Mutual
