Four managers on emerging markets in 2018
By Sonia Rach, 22 Dec 17
Emerging market equities have been a popular topic of discussion when looking ahead to 2018, but is this where investors are headed? Four fund managers outline reasons to remain positive in the emerging and frontier regions next year.
Craig Farley, manager of the Ashburton Chindia Equity Fund, believes this year China has defied the odds by avoiding the hard landing that dominated investors’ fears going into 2017, while the domestic stock market is flying.
He noted year-to-date returns of 20.8% and 50.5% for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index and MSCI China index respectively.
Farley said: “Currency devaluation, a ‘hard landing’ and/or a ‘Minsky moment’ due to China’s credit bubble were near the top of potential global risks heading into 2017.”
However, he added: “Positive surprises relative to expectations a year ago have arrived in the form of three major, and interlinked, structural initiatives; a continued economic ‘rebalancing’ towards consumption, supply-side reform and deleveraging efforts.”
Farley said the conclusion of the recent 19th China Communist Party Meeting indicates all three of these initiatives will form major strategic objectives within Beijing’s policy framework to ensure a degree of economic stability over the coming decade.
“We are leaning bullish on underlying market dynamics, suggesting healthy market returns in 2018,” he added.
The Ashburton Chindia Equity Fund invests primarily in financials (31.54%), followed by con discretionary (15.44%) and materials (12.36%). Against the MSCI EM GR USD benchmark, year to date the fund has produced returns of 44.08% versus 32.91%.
Over a three-year and five-year period, it has produced returns that are more than double of 41.11% and 92.77%, compared to 20.90% and 27.52%.
