The political upheaval that followed Britain’s vote to leave the EU saw Hammond’s predecessor and the architect of the pensions freedoms, George Osborne, depart in July.
Gwinnett spoke to International Adviser about what he thinks could be included and what he would like to see when Hammond takes to the despatch box.
“There are very few hints about what a Hammond-run treasury will look like. There have been no advanced briefings, or even backdoor briefings as far as I’m aware, that give any clue about what future policy will look like,” he said.
Pensions freedoms
One year on from the introduction of the pensions freedoms, Gwinnett does not expect much to change on that front.
“There is nothing coming out that suggests the freedoms have done anything the treasury would dislike,” he said.
“They have brought in tax revenue, are broadly popular and there does not appear to have been any massively negative results for people.”
Isas
The Lifetime Isa, however, could be at risk or at least delayed for 12 months. Gwinnett said: “We haven’t heard anything new on Lisa for a while, which might suggest the treasury is still trying to get its ducks in a row. It is a policy that does not stimulate the economy directly and I think it is one that could be at risk.”
However, if the Lisa was scrapped, he expects the Help to Buy Isa would survive in its current form.
Legislative clean-up
In terms of what he would like to see, Gwinnett wants the sensible clean-up of existing legislation to continue. Greater clarity on pensions tax relief is another priority, along with continuing to fix anomalies in the pension freedoms legislation.
“I would imagine that a flat rate of tax relief is firmly back on the treasury’s agenda. The reason, perhaps, it was abandoned was fear of a backbench rebellion with Brexit coming up. Well Brexit has happened.
“The rumour mill suggests that anything above 30% would cost the treasury more than the current system. I think we are more likely to see 25%, which is still enough of an incentive to reward basic-rate taxpayers.
“But whether this is coming in this autumn statement, I don’t know. We are running out of time in this parliament if it doesn’t come now.”
