But when a member of Monetary Policy Committee, Kristin Forbes, voices concern over waiting too long to hike rates, it is worth sitting up and taking notice.
Despite voting to keep rates on hold at the latest MPC meeting, Forbes’ column in The Telegraph warned that, given the forecasted two-year window for rate changes to take maximum effect, delaying the UK hike for too long could “risk undermining the recovery”.
Inertia creeps
Brown Shipley CIO Kevin Doran is also concerned about the possible implications.
“The Bank of England is in ‘we will [raise rates] when we have to’ mode, rather than as a precautionary measure,” he said.
“The timing of the hike is very nuanced. If they do not time the rate rise correctly or raise rates enough, the consequences for future inflation will be much greater than the market expects.”
Doran says that while the wider market is readying itself for take-off in spring 2016 – pending Q3 GDP figures – he is more hawkish, but far from optimistic on the prospect of seeing the rate rise moved forward.
“The Bank of England interest rate rise could come in February – which we are positioned for – but the market is priced for a May rise,” he expanded.
“The key thing that will get the other members to change their minds [and vote for an earlier rise] is either a strong GDP print, or an uptick in inflation. Given that the Q3 GDP data is very uncertain anyway, on top of where commodity prices are and what has happened to utility bills, there is currently no inflation pressure.”
As far as the macroeconomics are concerned, Forbes believes that the data justifies an early rise, citing 0.7% Q2 GDP growth, private sector average weekly earnings rising 3.3% in three months and recent sterling appreciation.
But while both Forbes and Doran believes that a rise should come sooner rather than later, others are not so convinced.
