Five Brexit scenarios for investors to chew over
By Kristen McGachey, 21 Jun 17
Brexit negotiations are officially underway. But what’s the final Brexit going to be – hard, soft, wobbly, red white and blue? Or will the UK economy simply plunge off the cliff edge? Investors weigh in.
The worst of all possible worlds as far as the health of the UK economy is concerned, the “cliff edge” scenario would involve the UK exiting the EU without any kind of deal, seeing it revert to WTO trading rules, thereby losing its existing preferential access to EU markets.
While Hilliard thinks that there is only a 10% chance this is likely to happen, “it remains a risk,” he said.
“Even now, we still do not think that the UK government fully appreciates how weak its negotiating position is and thus how unpalatable the shape of the mooted deal might be,” Hilliard continued.
“That is why, even with the reality check from the election, there is some risk of the UK negotiators walking out of the talks when the true awfulness of the likely outcome is fully understood.”
Tags: Brexit | Investment Strategy
