Five Brexit scenarios for investors to chew over
By Kristen McGachey, 21 Jun 17
Brexit negotiations are officially underway. But what’s the final Brexit going to be – hard, soft, wobbly, red white and blue? Or will the UK economy simply plunge off the cliff edge? Investors weigh in.
The least likely outcome among Hilliard’s Brexit scenarios, with just a 1% probability of occurring, would happen if the UK government rejects the final deal but is unable to convince the British public to accept the no-Brexit turn of events.
In this instance, the government would presumably be obliged to negotiate, speculated Hilliard, forcing them to devise a new deal that wouldn’t leave a post-Brexit UK as badly off but would still be accepted by constituents.
“Of course, this scenario has an expiry date,” he pointed out.
“If this rejection of the deal occurs close to the two-year deadline, then regardless of how much UK voters huff and puff about wanting a better deal, the Brexit clock will be continuing to tick so it would be most likely that this scenario would collapse into the ‘cliff edge’ scenario.”
Tags: Brexit | Investment Strategy
