Non-resident Indians tend to send more money home as the country approaches general elections, according to research carried out by Indian newspaper The Economic Times, which identified the trend over the last six elections.
In the third quarter of 2018 (July to September), remittances reached $20.8bn (£15.8bn, €18.2bn) up from $18bn in the second quarter.
If the trend holds true, that figure is expected to grow even further for the fourth quarter of 2018.
The next Indian general election is due to be held in April or May 2019.
Correlation or coincidence?
According to the newspaper, private transfers tend to swell around the time Indians go to the polls.
In the quarter preceding the 1992 election, there was a 52% increase in remittances, with similar trends recorded in 2000 (10%), 2005 (19%) and 2010 (35%).
The amount of money sent back has also increased dramatically since 1992, when it was about $1-2bn.
However, it is still not clear why there is such a correlation between the two events, as no formal research has been carried out on this topic.
Some economists have suggested that the increasing post-liberalisation efforts by the Indian political class, especially in order to reach out to the diaspora, could be an influencing factor. But there are no studies that can back up either this hypothesis or any other explanation linking the remittances to governmental elections.
