Stretched valuations of Indian equities compared to other emerging markets is one indicator leading Capital Economics to forecast a drop in the Bombay stock exchange-listed Sensex index to 35,000 by the close of 2019.
In its ‘India Chart Book’ report on 23 July, Capital Economics said Indian equities had dropped by over 3% so far this month, even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well over the same period.
“The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in this month’s union budget for FY19/20 which would subject foreign portfolio investors registered as trusts to higher taxes.
Looking ahead, it said that further falls in local equities are likely: “Despite the recent drop, valuations of Indian equities are still stretched compared to other emerging markets. In addition, we think that a continued slowdown in the US will cause the S&P 500 to slump and investors to retreat from risky assets generally.
“In all, we are forecasting another 10% fall in the Bombay stock exchange listed Sensex index from where it is now, to 35,000 by the end of the year.”
